"theres no question about it, louisiana has been caught in a downward spiral for going on three decades" says mr. stonecipher. the u.s. census bureau estimated shortly (july 2005) before hurricane katrina struck, that louisiana would gain a net population increase of 7.5% which equates to 333,000 people by 2030. however, a great majority of that number has already been lost. "at least 175,000" are still outside of louisiana according to mr. stonecipher's estimates. louisiana's ratio of births to deaths is 1.58 births to a death, which is about the national average. the national average is 1.67 to 1. but louisiana is losing population because of the (non-katrina) outmigration which has been going on for three decades. people are leaving louisiana far disproportionately compared to surrounding states and its worsening. in the year before katrina hit new orleans (orleans parish) rate of outmigration was actually peaking. in the 1960 census new orleans had just under 628,00 people and by the time katrina hit it had 454,000 "and change." the year before katrina hit 1.6% of orleans parish population left. thats the fastest rate of outmigration of any year over the past thirty years. mr. stonecipher says that generally these figures work for the state as well.
governor and legislature cover-up
"louisiana simply does not discuss - our government, our leaders do not discuss this issue. you will not hear any debate of this issue in the state legislature. you will never hear our governor mention it. from a public policy stand point we simply do not adjust for our future based on this destiny and it is our destiny. how in the world can we from a public policy standpoint not adjust to it?" - elliot stonecipher to emily metzgar.
mr. stonecipher says that the "myth" spread by a lot of people in new orleans and in louisiana state government is that these people are simply migrating to the northshore. or, they just went to somewhere else close by. mr. stonecipher says that is simply not true and is supported by census figures. "there is no state in the nation that does worse than louisiana in the category of choice" meaning people choosing to come to or stay in louisiana "where choice is concerned louisiana does as bad a job as you can do." so mr. stonecipher says that its not about "births and deaths its about migration and its going out."
demographics of the people who leave
mr. stonecipher says that the people who are leaving are the very people who disproportionately help to grow a state. not just in nominal numbers of people. they grow the tax base, they grow the public schools. they grow everything that stems from what younger better educational attainment level people do. thats who we are losing. mr. stonecipher says that we are making no plans to deal with being an older state. mr. stonecipher says that we are a state that is withering on the vine and those of us who are left are going to have to bear an ever increasing burden of everything it takes for a society to support itself. government continues to grow but our population doesnt.
mr. stonecipher says that we need to go back to the drawing board with these numbers and projections and think through "are we really o. k. with not growing?" because if we're not then we have to provide incentives for people to come here. the problem is that we are not configured in a tax and spend context to "incent" anyone to come here. everything about louisiana - people can get on the internet and compare louisiana to neighboring states and everything is a disincentive and thats why we do as poor as anybody in the area of the choice of where people live.
